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NBA playoff race: Making sense of the chaotic regular season finish

Minnesota is hosting Denver for the final playoff spot.
Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Denver Nuggets guard Gary Harris (14) dribbles in the second quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves forward Jimmy Butler (23) at Target Center

USA TODAY — Finally, some clarity.

Monday night’s slate of NBA games clinched three more spots out West. The New Orleans Pelicans, the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs are all in. It’s the Spurs’ 21st consecutive postseason appearance, tying the second-longest run in NBA history.

What we don’t know is which team gets the last spot. That will be determined Wednesday night when Minnesota hosts Denver for the final playoff spot. Both teams are tied at 46-35. Only two teams since 2009 haven’t made the postseason with 46 wins. Another one will join them this year. If Denver wins, they’d likely be the No. 7 seed. If Minnesota wins, ending the longest current playoff drought in the NBA, they could finish between the No. 5 or the No. 8 seed. But at least they’d be in.

After that, the only seeds that are currently settled are Houston and Golden State. Portland, which seemed a lock for the No. 3 seed, has lost four consecutive games ahead of Wednesday night’s finale against Utah. The Jazz, winners of five in a row, control their own destiny. If they beat Golden State and Portland, they’ll be the No. 3 seed – which is remarkable given that they were nine games under .500 on Jan. 22. They could open the playoffs at home for the first time since 2001. It’s also possible the Jazz could fall to the No. 7 seed.

After that, it’s chaos. The Pelicans, Spurs and Thunder are all tied at 47-34 with one game left. New Orleans hosts the Spurs in the season finale. If the Spurs win, they’ll likely finish fourth or fifth, according to the San Antonio Express News. A loss could drop them to the eighth seed, pitting them against Houston. Conversely, a Pelicans win could make them the No. 4, No. 5 or No. 6 seed. A loss likely means they’d be the No. 8 seed.

The Thunder, the other team in the mix, host tanking Memphis to end the season. With a win, a Utah win over Golden State on Tuesday and a Utah loss to Portland on Wednesday, the Thunder would be the No. 4 seed, according to The Oklahoman. In that scenario, the Thunder would be in a three-way tie with Utah and the winner of the Pelicans-Spurs game and would have the edge based off winning percentage against the other two teams. There’s also the possibility of a four-way tie depending on the outcome of Utah-Portland.

The East, fortunately, is a bit simpler. Cleveland won its division Monday night, giving it the tiebreaker against Philadelphia in the No. 3-No. 4 battle. But for that to come into play, the Sixers would need to lose to either Atlanta or Milwaukee. The Pacers are locked into the No. 5 seed.

After that, there’s a bit of mayhem. Milwaukee can finish No. 6 with a win over Philadelphia on Wednesday. The Bucks can also fall to the No. 8 seed though it's not likely depending on what Miami and Washington do. The Wizards end with two teams (Boston, Orlando) not playing for anything and the Heat finish with the Raptors, who have little incentive themselves.

Does your head hurt yet?

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Michael Singer on Twitter.

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