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Will Trump be hired or fired by voters?

5:52 PM, Apr 27, 2011   |    comments
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When someone in the diner urged him to run, "I'm going to run. I'm thinking about it very strongly," Trump responded.

Trump also addressed President Obama's full birth certificate release on Wednesday, something Trump has championed.

"I am really honored, frankly, to have played such a big role in hopefully, hopefully getting rid of this issue. Now we have to look at it, we have to see is it real, is it proper, what's on it, but I hope it checks out beautifully," Trump said.

The issue has helped to propel Trump to the top of polls among possible Republican candidates for president in 2012.

"He is tied at the top of the polls and there are some polls that say he is ahead," 9NEWS Political Analyst Floyd Ciruli said. "As of today, he changed the dynamic because he has become a huge distraction and interestingly, those other relatively unknown and less strong candidates right now are almost dying of lack of oxygen. The entire press corps is up in New Hampshire following Trump around. He may end up being a very marginal candidate, but as of today, he is probably the number one candidate."

Ciruli believes Trump's polling numbers are tied to his celebrity status and high name recognition, two things that may not carry him.

"Celebrity status versus strength in a primary are very, very different things," Ciruli said. "On balance, his name identification, those positives and negatives don't fit presidential politics. He has more baggage than he has benefit."

Early success in presidential polling doesn't always translate to long-term success. Four years ago, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani had a significant lead among Republicans considering a run for the White House. By Jan. 30, 2008, Giuliani's failures in the primaries and sagging polling numbers forced him to withdraw from the race.

"Trump has name recognition, but also an image that is not particularly attractive, so he has to become more substantive," Norman Provizer, a professor of political science at Metro State College, said.

Provizer and Ciruli believe if Trump is to become a viable candidate, he will need to move beyond the issue of Obama's birth certificate and talk about issues like the foreign and domestic policies.

"Donald may survive as a businessman and as a TV personality, I'm not sure he's going to survive as a presidential candidate," Ciruli said.


(KUSA-TV © 2011 Multimedia Holdings Corporation)

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