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CU forecasters predict a Romney presidency

10:17 PM, Aug 22, 2012   |    comments
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The model uses economic indicators from all 50 states to predict the race's outcome. The forecast calls for Romney to win 320 electoral votes out of 538.

It says Romney will also win virtually every state currently considered a swing state, including Colorado.

"The economy is in bad enough shape that we see a fairly large Romney victory," said Michael Berry from CU-Denver.

He and Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder created the formula, which incorporates two main economic indicators: personal income and unemployment.

READ THE ENTIRE STUDY HERE

By using monthly government data on those topics, the professors compared recent numbers to four years ago on a state-by-state basis.

Higher unemployment or lower personal income counted against President Obama.

The professors say their model correctly forecasts every winner of the electoral college since 1980 using historical data from before those elections.

They warn the model does not account for sudden changes in the economy or unexpected developments in states split 50-50.

Nor does it account for social issues, which have been a subject of heated debate in this campaign.

Polls in many states, including Colorado, show a virtually deadlocked race.

National polls have shown a slight lead for President Obama. Pollsters say that voters are willing to give the President some leeway on the economy since the recession that occurred before he took office was especially deep.

Some 9NEWS viewers expressed disappointment that the prediction was made at all, but the professors defend their effort.

"Anything that can facilitate more discussion and political participation I personally think is good," Berry said. "I doubt that our model will change voting behavior by any means."

(KUSA-TV © 2012 Multimedia Holdings Corporation with The Associated Press)