DENVER — Gov. Jared Polis (D-Colorado) and state epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Herlihy expressed concern Tuesday about a steady increase in the hospitalization rate related to the coronavirus and what could happen if that trend is not reversed before the holidays arrive and even less social distancing is expected.
The reproductive number for the virus is currently at 1.25. It represents the number of people who could be infected by one contagious person. Ideally, that number should be below one.
"That is not sustainable," said Polis. "You can be at 1.25 for a few weeks, but it is exponential. You cannot be at the number for months at a time or you overwhelm your hospitals. Just like we did in July, we need a gut check."
Herlihy noted that prior to surges around the 4th of July and Labor Day, the state was in a relatively low place for disease transmission. However, following the Labor Day spike, there has been no downward trend, and instead, data in key areas has plateaued.
"We have really not budged at all in the last week," said Herlihy. "This is a concerning trend for us in that we haven't seen a decrease from what we believe was a Labor Day spike that we experienced. We're starting to see this translate into pretty substantial increases in hospitalizations in the state."
There are 233 patients currently hospitalized in Colorado as of Monday, Oct. 5, and the seven-day, moving average positivity rate increased to 3.44%, according to the latest data from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE).
Herlihy said the state is seeing more hospitalizations than the models had predicted.
"What we're concerned about going forward is this possible scenario where we don't see a decrease in the level of disease transmission that may occur in the next couple of weeks," she said. "What we need to try and achieve is suppression of the virus just as we did following the 4th of July and Labor Day so we can get back to a low level of disease transmission leading to Thanksgiving and the winter holidays."
Herlihy noted one exception to the trend was among those aged 18 to 25. Virus transmission among that age group was especially high but dropped off significantly due to efforts made by college campuses and local leaders in those areas.
Polis urged those who may think they're experiencing breathing or coughing issues from the poor air quality related to wildfires to get tested for COVID-19, especially if they have reason to believe they've been exposed. He said those symptoms could also be the early signs of the virus and getting tested is the only way to be certain.
He also talked about President Donald Trump and his recent positive coronavirus test. Polis said he agreed with the president when he said we shouldn't be afraid, but said we must remain cautious.
"This should be a wake-up call for all of us," Polis said. "It shows that the virus plays no favorites, it can affect anyone at any time.
The part that's missing is using this as a moment to message safety. So the president shoots from the gut, his message of not being scared and fearful is the right concept, but then he takes it [in] the wrong direction. He says, 'Don't be fearful,' but then insinuates, 'Be careless.' He should be messaging, 'Don't be fearful, be careful and cautious."
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