The investigations unfolding at Ohio State and Maryland have changed the dynamics of this coming offseason’s coaching market.
It was just last month that the most likely Power Five opening was at Kansas, where David Beaty has struggled to reverse the Jayhawks’ run as the worst program in the Football Bowl Subdivision. Now, with Urban Meyer and D.J. Durkin on paid leave, the potential is there for a domino effect across the Power Five ranks.
But tenuous job security isn’t reserved for the Power Five. Several coaches on the Group of Five level are likewise entering make-or-break seasons, meaning the total number of offseason coaching changes should be similar to the recent past.
On the other hand, each conference has at least one “untouchable” head coach: a coach whose job security is strong enough to survive nearly any on-field result, within reason.
Let’s take stock of the current market by evaluating the most and least secure head coach in each league.
American Athletic Conference
Most secure: Ken Niumatalolo, Navy
Least secure: Scottie Montgomery, East Carolina
While the idea that Niumatalolo will end his career at Navy isn’t set in stone – he had a notable dalliance with Brigham Young and was considered at Syracuse, Arizona and elsewhere – few coaches can match the goodwill he’s built at the academy.
Montgomery has overseen a pair of nine-loss finishes in his two seasons at ECU, which fired his predecessor, Ruffin McNeill, after he “slipped” to five wins in 2015. The pressure is on to get the Pirates into bowl contention this year.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Most secure: Dabo Swinney, Clemson
Least secure: Larry Fedora, North Carolina
Swinney’s case is obvious: Clemson has been transformed into one of the nation’s elite programs since he took over midway through the 2010 season. The situation with Fedora is a little more complex.
While he may prove that last year’s 3-9 finish was an aberration, it hasn’t been a great month: Fedora’s comments minimizing the dangers of CTE at ACC media days were an embarrassment for the program and the university, and the recent scandal involving the sale of team-issued gear left 13 student-athletes facing suspensions as long as four games this coming season. It’s one thing to have a bad season; it’s another to add a bad offseason on top.
Big 12
Most secure: Gary Patterson, TCU
Least secure: David Beaty, Kansas
The Big 12 is brimming with head coaches holding enviable job security. Patterson is one, joined by Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley, Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy and Kansas State’s Bill Snyder. (Though the delicate transition looming in Kansas State’s future creates a strange dynamic.) Beaty’s job security is even weaker following the university’s recent change at athletics director.
Big Ten
Most secure: Scott Frost, Nebraska
Least secure: Lovie Smith, Illinois
Listing Frost might be a cop out, since he’s yet to coach a game with the Cornhuskers – but few coaches anywhere can match the patience he’ll be offered at his alma mater. Smith has been preaching a similar degree of patience as Illinois builds from the bottom up, but the team’s putrid performance can’t be ignored.
Obviously, it’s fair to line up both Meyer and Durkin in Smith’s camp. For now, at least, until the two universities conclude their investigations and decide whether both are worthy of returning to their positions. If OSU does fire Meyer – and we’ll know soon – all bets are off in terms of how this winter’s cycle will play out.
Conference USA
Most secure: Bill Clark, Alabama-Birmingham
Least secure: Brad Lambert, Charlotte
The work Clark has done amid UAB’s resurfacing has been nothing short of outstanding. In a slightly similar situation, Lambert has failed to put Charlotte on the map since taking over a new program in 2013.
Mid-American Conference
Most secure: Frank Solich, Ohio
Least secure: Mike Jinks, Bowling Green
Solich’s long and successful tenure at Ohio is proof that there are second acts in coaching. He should pull down his 100th win with the Bobcats by early October. Jinks took over at Bowling Green with sizable expectations but has turned in just six wins across two seasons.
Mountain West
Most secure: Craig Bohl, Wyoming
Least secure: Bob Davie, New Mexico
Bohl would love to end his career at Wyoming – and the university seems only too happy to make that a reality. Back-to-back bowl berths and another first-round quarterback prove that he’s got things going with the Cowboys. Davie’s off-field issues loom largest of all, and when joined by the Lobos’ step back in 2017 place him firmly on the hot seat heading into September.
Pac-12
Most secure: Chris Petersen, Washington
Least secure: Mike MacIntyre, Colorado
Petersen’s a good choice here, though his high level of job security is evenly matched by Stanford’s David Shaw and Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, to name two. (This doesn’t count the obvious security found among the new hires, such as UCLA’s Chip Kelly and Arizona’s Kevin Sumlin.) It’s extremely difficult to envision an opening that would draw Petersen’s interest, let alone pull him away from the Huskies.
In the South Division, MacIntyre’s inability to build upon Colorado’s breakout 2016 season has left his future in doubt. In addition, it’s still difficult to overlook his part in the university’s response to allegations of domestic abuse involving a former assistant coach in December of 2016 – especially when considering the situation in play at Ohio State.
Southeastern Conference
Most secure: Nick Saban, Alabama
Least secure: Ed Orgeron, LSU
Yeah, Saban. Obviously. Orgeron’s enormous buyout – it was $12 million during the 2017 season – will play an obvious role in his immediate future even if the Tigers plummet out of SEC contention, as could be the case this fall. But what’s another couple million for LSU? While Barry Odom merits watching at Missouri, the league as a whole seems stable in terms of potential openings.
Sun Belt
Most secure: Neal Brown, Troy
Least secure: Everett Withers, Texas State
After back-to-back seasons with 10 or more wins, Brown’s next stop is in the Power Five. Withers won seven games as the interim coach at UNC in 2011 and helped lay the framework for a national title at James Madison during his stint from 2014-15. But the Bobcats have been one of the worst teams in the country in each of his two seasons at Texas State.
