ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — This Broncos’ season can be dissected into many parts. Here is one: They are 4-0 against the cupcakes, 3-7 against the decent portion of their schedule.
Against the four teams that have sunk to the mud of the NFL standings, the Broncos beat the Giants, Jaguars, Jets and Lions by a combined 114-36, 78 points overall. Denver’s only ‘RPI’ wins are against the Cowboys, Washington and Chargers.
The Raiders at the moment are somewhere in between a cupcake and a decent opponent.
They drilled the Broncos, 34-24, in week 6 at Empower Field at Mile High a couple of days after they lost their head coach Jon Gruden to a forced resignation. The Raiders were 5-2 this season but then seemed to struggle mentally, emotionally and physically from the loss of their speedy receiver Henry Ruggs III to criminal charges resulting from his high-speed, fiery and fatal car crash.
Since the Ruggs’ incident, the Raiders have gone 2-5, a slump that includes blowout losses to the Bengals and twice to the Chiefs.
The Broncos and Raiders are both 7-7 heading into their AFC West divisional matchup Sunday at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The loser will be practically eliminated from the AFC playoff race. The winner will still have a longshot chance of reaching the postseason as the No. 7 and final AFC seed.
Merry Christmas, and with the Raiders, not the same team the Broncos faced earlier this season, here are 5 suggestions for the Broncos to follow if they want to win Sunday and keep their slim playoff hopes alive:
1. Win the red zone
This shouldn’t be difficult. The Raiders are 29th in red-zone offense (touchdowns on 50 percent of their trips) and 32nd, or last, in red-zone defense (allowing TDs 77.1 percent of the time.) The Broncos were 1 of 2 in red-zone trips with Drew Lock as their second-half quarterback last week against the Bengals and their red-zone defense ranks 8th overall (48.4 percent TDs).
2. Keep Derek Carr in check
The Raiders’ QB was superb against the Broncos in their first meeting this year, throwing for 341 yards, 2 TDs and a season-best 134.4 rating. But he won’t have Ruggs in this one, and probably won’t have near-uncoverable tight end Darren Waller, who has missed the past three weeks with a hip injury and hasn’t practiced this week either. Ruggs caught two long passes in the Week 6 game against Broncos’ cornerback Ronald Darby, who has played well since that game in mid-October.
3. Deep down the middle Drew
Lock is quite good at throwing the deep middle passes. And the Broncos’ top receivers – Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick – have been productive at various times with the deep middle routes. Lock isn’t nearly as accurate with his passes to the boundaries – who is? – but he can rip it down the seams with the best of them.
Sutton is in a 7-game slump of 2 or fewer catches. Jeudy had zero catches last week and has yet to have a game of at least 80 receiving yards. In light of Patrick’s last 9 games, he’s had less than 4 catches and 65 yards.
It’s way past time for Broncos’ receivers to make a big impact on a game. That should happen in this game with Teddy Bridgewater out with a concussion and Lock pushing the ball downfield.
4. One turnover or less for Lock
He’s either thrown at least one interception or lost a fumble, in 21 of 24 games in his three-season career. So asking him to go without one turnover in this game may not be realistic. But he can’t have two. If he turns it over just once and otherwise plays well, the Broncos should win.
5. Keep Melvin and Javonte fed
The rookie Javonte Williams has rushed for 102, 73 and 72 yards (247) the last three games. Gordon in his last three games has 53, 111 and 83 yards (247). Forcing the Raiders’ defense to respect the Broncos’ run game will help Lock win the game with his arm.
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