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Broncos training camp preview: Will Russell Wilson be worth at least 3 more wins?

GM George Paton gave up a significant portion of the team's future in exchange for one of the NFL's best quarterbacks.

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Used to be, NFL general managers liked to say they wanted to construct a winning roster the right way. Which meant building through the draft.

The past two Super Bowl winners, though, took shortcuts. Tampa Bay was 7-9 in 2019, signed quarterback Tom Brady, and won it all in 2020.

The Los Angeles Rams haven’t had a first-round draft pick since 2016 when they took quarterback Jared Goff number 1 overall. And they won’t have a first-round draft pick next year either, after including it, and Goff, in a monster package to acquire quarterback Matthew Stafford from Detroit.

But after surrendering so many top-round draft picks to acquire the Pro Bowl likes of Stafford, Von Miller and Jalen Ramsey, the Rams captured their first Super Bowl for the city of Los Angeles last season.

>Video above: Meet Jake Heaps, Russell Wilson's personal QB coach

In Russell Wilson, the Broncos took a short cut. 

Denver general manager George Paton spent 14 years in Minnesota trying to help Rick Spielman build a Super Bowl champion the right way. Only to never reach the Super Bowl.

After getting the big chair in Denver last year and tinkering with an inherited roster that finished 5-11 in 2020, Paton’s Broncos did improve to 7-10 last season. But he wasn’t going to count on the next two drafts to get to 9-8 this year and maybe 10-7 with a playoff berth in 2023.

Credit: AP
Denver Broncos new starting quarterback Russell Wilson, center, hods up his new jersey while flanked by head coach Nathaniel Hackett, right, and general manager George Paton after a news conference Wednesday, March 16, 2022, at the team's headquarters in Englewood, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Paton accelerated the plan by going all in on Wilson. Not only did Paton give up both first- and second-round picks in the 2022 and 2023 drafts, he threw in the Broncos’ top two young players from the previous regime’s 2019 draft, first-round tight end Noah Fant and second-round quarterback Drew Lock.

"In Russ, We Trust" would be the Broncos’ unofficial motto if Wilson hadn’t already insisted on “Let’s Ride.”

With players reporting Tuesday to training camp and the first practice Wednesday morning at UCHealth Training Center, one of the top questions confronting the Broncos is: Was Russell Wilson worth it? Is the former Seattle Seahawks quarterback -- whom in his 10 years as a starter reached two Super Bowls, winning one (at the Broncos’ expense in 2013), made nine Pro Bowls, averaged an 11-5 record in his first nine seasons, and reached the postseason eight times in his 10 years – worth at least three more regular-season wins for at least these two years the Broncos don’t have those top-round draft picks?

Know this: Wilson is working on it.

Wilson may be a global jet-setter when the Broncos are not practicing, but at the same time no one works harder at football. You can’t work harder than harder than anyone else.

Twice this offseason, including earlier this week, he used his “down time” to host several of his new Broncos offensive teammates at his San Diego-area fitness center – which includes an 80-yard football field – for on-field playbook, in-home film study sessions and some bonding with the guys.

“He’s laid back and will chill a little bit but when he’s on that field he’s got a different switch,’’ receiver Jerry Jeudy said Thursday at his youth football camp from Arvada West High School.

Wilson is also known to arrive at team headquarters before 6 a.m. and he’ll stay late to watch film, talk playbook with head coach Nathaniel Hackett, who is also calling the plays, and work out with his own personal team of coaches.

There has been talk, mostly from the scorned Seahawk community, that Wilson is not the quarterback he once was. A finger injury on his passing hand that had to be surgically repaired should excuse a three- or four-game slump he experienced last season. Especially when considering what Wilson did in the final three games last year: 51 of 82 (62.2%), nine touchdowns against just one interception for a 137.5 rating.

Credit: AP
Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson takes part in drills at the NFL football team's headquarters Monday, May 23, 2022, in Centennial, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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He led the Seahawks to 51 points in a win against the Lions, 38 points in a win against the playoff-bound Cardinals and the only loss, 25-24 to the Bears, was played in a field-blanketing snow storm.

This is hardly evidence of a fall-off. Wilson also moved well, threw with authority and made several of his patented off-schedule big plays during the Broncos’ OTA and minicamp practices.

He appears to have plenty of elite-level play left in him, even as he turns 34 in late November. It says here Wilson, along with the new coaching staff, will improve the Broncos by three wins this year. And while 10-7 could wind up on the playoff bubble – one or two 10-7 teams should make the postseason; one or two 10-7 teams may not – if the Broncos do get in don’t be surprised if Wilson’s vast postseason experience helps pull out a first-round win.

The following 2023 season will be fair to expect Wilson and the Broncos to reach the Super Bowl.

If that happens, then yes, the haul of draft picks and players surrendered to get Wilson will have been worth it. Even if it doesn’t go as planned these next two seasons for the Broncos, as they are coming off five consecutive losing seasons, few would argue going all in for Wilson wasn’t worth a try.

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