COLORADO, USA — The first half of February was very active in the mountains and on the Front Range with very few breaks in between storms. The computer models are showing a less active period for the second half of the month. 

There will still be several chances for snow on the Front Range, but there should be a little more normal of a wait, with a few days separating storm events. 

The last week of February is likely to feature a ridging pattern though, which would shut down the snow train for an extended period of time in the mountains and the Front Range. 

This blog will watch all the developments in the computer forecast models, and will be updated once every day.

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Tuesday Update

Feb. 19

Another wave of snow showers is headed to the Front Range Wednesday. A few flurries will be possible tonight and early tomorrow morning, but it really doesn't fill in much until the afternoon hours.

Colorado snow
Colorado snow forecast from 6pm Tuesday to 930am Thursday.
KUSA

The snow totals will likely be very low in the Denver metro, mostly 1-2 inches with some spots slightly below and some slightly higher. The downtown Denver area will probably get less than an inch. 

Storm should clear out of the metro by sunrise on Thursday. 

Front Range
Front Range snow forecast from 6pm Tuesday to 9am Thursday.
KUSA

There's a little bit better of a potential on the Palmer Divide and the Foothills.

The eastern plains north of I-70 will likely get their typical dusting of 1 inch.

SE Colorado
Southeast Colorado snow forecast from 6pm Tuesday to 11am Thursday.
KUSA

There is a Winter Weather Advisory in southern Colorado due to the possibility of 3-6 inches.

There is another advisory in parts of Nebraska for the potential for up to 5 inches of snow. 

Northeast Corner
Northeast Corner and parts of Nebraska snow forecast from 6pm Tuesday to 9p Thursday.
KUSA

Feb. 22-23

A storm will hit the San Juans again in southwest Colorado — looks like maybe the 6-12 inch range on Saturday night. Winter Storm Warnings will likely come out for this storm. 

It will also bring some light snow to parts of southeast Colorado and the Palmer Divide, and it looks like a little less than an inch in Colorado Springs and Castle Rock. 

This will likely not bring any snow to the Denver area. 

Chance of snow in Denver: 5% (Saturday night. Less than 1 inch)

Feb. 24-25

This storm looks like it has the potential to bring 1-3 inches of snow to the Denver over two separate waves. And maybe 3-6 inches for the central and northern mountains. 

Chance of snow in Denver: 30%

Feb. 27 - Feb 28

There's a storm with some mountain snow showing. A couple runs have shown some light snow possible for the Denver metro.    

Mar. 2-3

Trending a little closer to the Front Range in today's runs, but not much snow being shown. 

Mar. 4-5

This window is clear again today. 

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Monday Update

Feb. 18-19

This wave of snow will likely end before sunrise Tuesday morning in the Denver area, and then be followed by a couple more waves.

It will mostly be a trace to 2" in the metro area by 5am.

Then probably get a quick wave around sunset or just before that on Tuesday evening. It dries out again, so may not have any snow at all during the morning commute on Wednesday. But then it comes back mid morning and and lasts until about 5am Thursday morning. 

snow Forecast
Snow accumulation for the second wave Wednesday morning to Thursday morning. This is on top of what falls in the first wave.
KUSA

Another trace to 2" possible with those waves. 

Breaks are a little shorter on the Palmer Divide so their numbers will be higher. When all these waves are over and you add up all the snow, El Paso and Pueblo County locations will most likely have the biggest numbers. 

Eastern Plains and foothills also gets some snow. Not very much in the mountains but you may find a couple inches in spots. 

Grand total at DIA will probably be about 2 inches.

Feb. 22-23

This storm has come across as a stronger system in the last couple model runs. Could even bring a few showers to the Denver area. For now it looks like 0-1" for the Denver metro, and 1-3" for the Colorado Springs metro. 

Chance of snow in Denver: 5% (Saturday night. Less than 1")

Feb. 24-25

The signal is still strong for some snow in the Denver metro with this wave, however not will too big of an impact. Lookin like 1-3" Monday night into Tuesday. 

Chance of snow in Denver: 20%

Feb. 27 - Feb 28

Storm with some mountain snow showing.   

Mar. 2-3

This system made a second appearance in the modeling. Doesn't show impacts to the Front Range yet. 

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Sunday Update

Feb. 17-19

The next chance for snow on the Front Range starts tonight and goes through about 7am on Monday morning. Widely scattered stuff, so not too many of us will see accumulation. 

Some areas to the northwest, north, and northeast of the Denver metro may wake up to a dusting of snow tomorrow. Most likely less than 2" for those few spots that get a shower. 

Will a slight warm layer, freezing rain could be possible as well. Maybe to the east of the Denver area. 

Then a trough will likely bottom out and level off right over Colorado. That will give the Front Range several more chances to see snow all the way through Thursday morning. 

Snow will develop around the Denver metro area on Monday afternoon, but no accumulation is likely until well after sunset. There will be some snow during the morning commute on Tuesday.

The Denver metro is looking at mostly totals around 1 inch, will some spots slightly below or slightly above that number by Tuesday night at noon. 

Then it will likely dry out around the metro during the peak daylight hours, only to kick back in in the evening. Between Tuesday night and Wednesday night at 11pm, Denver could be looking at basically another 1 inch of snow with a few areas slightly lower and a few areas slightly higher than that number.

That means some more snow will be possible during the Wednesday morning and evening commutes. Should be no snow falling during the drive on Thursday morning though. 

Denver's totals for the whole 3-day event will likely be between 1-3". 

The Palmer Divide, El Paso County, and Pueblo County will have a little better potential. A Spread between 1-6" likely there with the Springs closest to 6. 

The eastern plains has a little better potential than Denver as well. Same spread between 1-3" but more areas closer to 3 than the metro. 

The foothills are in the 1-3" spread.

The higher parts of Boulder County has good potential to go over 4", while Eldora will get more than 6".

The Wet Mountains also has good potential to go over 6".

Chance of snow in Denver: 60%

Feb. 21-22

Light snow possible with this weak trough in the southern mountains. 

Chance of snow in Denver: 0%

Feb. 24-26

Another day of strong modeling today showing snow on the Front Range in this window. Most likely time is Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Chance of snow in Denver: 10%

Feb. 27 - Feb 29

The weak signal in this window has disappeared in today's model runs.  

Mar. 2-3

Small system showed up new in today's model. 

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Saturday Update

Feb. 15-17

Our next storm has already moved into the Colorado high country tonight. This will deliver persistent snow showers to the central and northern mountains starting late Saturday night and through the entire day Sunday. 

Snow could be very heavy at times, especially to the north. Mountain travel Sunday is not recommended for inexperienced drivers. 

This storm will will attempt to push some showers down on to the Front Range early Sunday morning, but it is unlikely that anyone gets accumulation.

Snow Forecast
Snow accumulation forecast through Monday morning at 11am.
NWS Boulder

Then late Sunday night and very early on Monday morning, snow showers will be a little more successful in penetrating the Front Range. Some parts of the foothills and areas to the north of I-70 on the plains could wake up to a dusting or even some active snowfall. Likely less than 2" and just in a few lucky spots. 

The models show the northwest Denver metro, the Boulder and Larimer County foothills and parts of Weld County as the most likely spots to get some snow, but it only shows about a half an inch. 

Chance of snow in Denver: 10% (Possible Monday morning. Accumulation unlikely)

Feb. 17-18

Another storm moves in on Monday afternoon. This one will likely impact the Denver metro area on Monday night and Tuesday morning. 

There will not likely be any snow accumulation in Denver until late. Like about 9pm, but there could be a few snow showers as early as sunset. There should be about a half inch to an inch spread throughout the area by midnight, but heavy snow may come on Tuesday. 

The snow should start much early to the south near Colorado Springs. Also on the Palmer Divide.

The best probability is that we see 1-2" of snow in the Denver metro area by noon on Tuesday. Then it could clear out during the peak hours of daylight, and then return for another dose on Tuesday night lasting into Wednesday morning. We could get another 1-2" with that surge. 

Even though the snow accumulation numbers are not impressive, the morning commutes on Tuesday and Wednesday morning will likely be slow in the metro. 

The most significant snow on the Front Range continues to show for the Colorado Springs area with 4-6" by midnight on Wednesday. That's not a ton for 48 hour period, but it's still the highest amount on the probability charts. 

The eastern plains should make out pretty good with this one. Models continue to be consistent showing roughly 2-4" except for the for northern sections. The areas on the south end of the Palmer Divide along Highway 24 could get more than 4 inches by Wednesday night. 

The other big winner will likely be the Wet Mountains with 5-10 inches. 

Chance of snow in Denver: 45%

Feb. 20-21

Light snow possible with this weak trough in the southern mountains. 

Chance of snow in Denver: 0%

Feb. 24-26

Both models are sending a strong signal with all their runs today showing a strong storm system with upslope snow on the Front Range. Right now it looks like Monday night has the highest chance. 

Chance of snow in Denver: 5%

Feb. 27 - Feb 29

Nothing too consistent yet but GFS has a storm in Colorado in this window. 

Mar. 1-2

Currently nothing showing here yet. 

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Friday Update

Feb. 14-15

This next storm will be hardly noticeable in Colorado. It actually moves in late tonight and will be gone by 9am Saturday morning. Some snow will be possible in the northern mountains, but it will only be on the high mountain passes and probably just an inch or two. 

Denver will not be impacted other than a little colder air moving overnight. 

Chance of snow in Denver: 0%

Feb. 15-17

This storm will be the second storm in this batch of three, and move in on Saturday shortly after the previous storm departs. It will mostly just impact the mountains. 

There is a Winter Storm Watch out for the central and northern mountains. Some of higher passes will get between 10-15 inches with isolated spots close to 20". Mountain towns will vary with 2-4" in Summit County, while Steamboat Springs will probably get more than 10".

There will be a surge of snow showers that reach down to the Front Range on through the day on Sunday with maybe a dusting of snow in the foothills, but the better chance will be early Monday morning. 

These showers will be battling downsloping winds, so I wouldn't expect much. The Denver metro could see a few flakes but probably no accumulation. Some areas to the north and northeast of Denver could get a band that gives you 2 inches or less. 

Another storm will be moving in right behind this one though. 

Chance of snow in Denver: 15% (Possible Monday morning. Accumulation unlikely)

Feb. 17-18

Then storm number three comes in. This one will likely deliver some snow to the Front Range. 

Look for this storm to start making an impact on Monday afternoon or evening in Denver. Probably no accumulation until after dark. Looks like it will last through the Tuesday morning commute, so with low temps and snow sticking to the roads, that drive will likely be very slow. 

Totals in the metro would be between 2-4" if this storm track holds. Yesterday's runs showed less impact, but at least the Euro has been generally consistent on this storm. 

The GFS did have a run will large snow totals in its most recent run, but that model will have to be discarded from consideration for tonight due to major inconsistency and overall poor performance lately. 

Overall, there is a trend upwards in impacts to the Denver area on Monday night and Tuesday morning though. The numbers have come down a little in southern Colorado a bit, but this storm still looks like it will favor the areas from Colorado Springs southward. 

Chance of snow in Denver: 30%

Feb. 20-21

This storm is very weak and may not last in too many more runs, but for now it shows some light snow, mostly in the southern mountains. 

Chance of snow in Denver: 0%

Feb. 24-26

Could be 1 or 2 storms in this window. Today's runs are showing some impacts to the Front Range but nothing solid yet. 

Feb. 28 - Mar. 1

GFS shows a couple of storms nearby, but just missing Colorado. 

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Feb. 15

The first storm system will miss Colorado by a long way to the north on Saturday, but we will still feel some impacts. The northern mountains could even get a quick dusting.

We may feel the cold air moving through on the Front Range but precipitation is unlikely. 

Chance of snow in Denver: 2%

Feb. 16-18

This storm will provide the Front Range with the next chance for snow, although it doesn't look like much at this point. Probably a better chance for southeast Colorado. 

Snow
The Euro model shows Monday's snow mostly south of the Denver area so far.
KUSA

It will probably move into the northern mountains very late on Saturday night, and last for a couple days. So far we are looking at about 6-12 inches in the central and northern mountains. 

We'll probably see a round of Winter Storm Warnings issued this weekend. 

On Sunday morning, it will try to push into the Denver area, but not much will make it down. Then again on Sunday night into Monday morning, it will make a better surge through the day. 

Denver probably won't get much put parts of the foothills and Palmer Divide could get an inch or two. 

The I-25 corridor from Colorado Springs to Trinidad will have the best chance at getting decent snow Monday. Strong winds could even bring blizzard-like conditions there. 

The southern mountains will get some snow out of this as well. 

Chance of snow in Denver: 5%

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Feb. 19-20

A quick little southern storm track right behind Monday's storm may bring some light impacts to parts of Colorado. The models have not been showing any impacts to the Front Range with this. 

Chance of snow in Denver: 0%

Feb. 24-29

After a few days under a strong and warm ridge, it is not clear if Colorado will snap right back into action, or if the jet stream will ease us back in. 

The GFS does show a few small storms in this window with impacts to the Front Range, but the Euro is showing a very slow rebuild into a storm period to start March. 

Either way, there are not a lot of great storm signals existing for the rest of the month of the Front Range. The mountains should remain in good shape with the big storm in the mountains Sunday and Monday, along with just enough activity going into that ridge. 

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