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Snow Blog: Monday might be last chance to see snow in Denver

The blog monitors long-range computer modeling to see if any snow chances are developing.

COLORADO, USA — It does often snow on the Front Range in May, but it is not often that there is accumulation in Denver. Last year was the first time in four years that there was enough snow on the ground to actually measure.

RELATED: A look at memorable May snow in Denver's history

RELATED: Colorado spring storm: Snow totals so far

Active storm pattern from May 11 through the end of May, but overall warm signal will limit snow chances. Monday May 11 might be our last chance to see snowflakes in the Denver metro area.  

Sunday Entry (May 10)

Monday May 11

There is a system moving through Monday that will be able to deliver some precipitation. Along the Front Range it will likely be convective type storms, so that means there could be many different types of precip. 

Mostly rain and graupel, but there is a chance for some small hail, and even some snow at times. This will most likely be our last chance to see some snow in the Denver area. Accumulation probably will not happen though. 

Storms will be possible from about 9am to 9pm.

Chance for snow in Denver: 5%

Tuesday May 12

A few more light showers on Tuesday but it should be just rain. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 13 -18

Very active storm cycle in this timeframe, but likely too warm down low for snow. I'll watch these storms closely. May end the snow blog on the 17th unless another cold signal develops. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 20-21

Rain. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 23-27

Rain.

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

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Saturday Entry (May 9)

Sunday May 10

Cold air continues to move in from the north but the air won't be wet enough for too much precipitation. There will be just enough humidity in the morning though to create some frost in the area. 

Credit: KUSA

The National Weather Service has issued a Frost Advisory for the morning.  

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

Monday May 11

This may be our last opportunity of the season to see some snow in the Denver area. If it was coming in earlier, I'd say we could even see some accumulation, but it looks like the best time for precipitation will be from 10am to 6pm.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a dusting in the higher suburbs. It won't be a stratus layer of clouds but instead more convective style storms. That means there is less coverage. You have to get lucky and be underneath one of those storm cells to get snow. 

It will probably be mixed with rain and graupel so accumulation is not likely in many places. Another wave may develop in the evening hours to give us one last shot, but best chance is just before noon.  

Chance for snow in Denver: 5%

Tuesday May 12

A few more light showers on Tuesday but it should be just rain. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 14 -17

Very active storm cycle in this timeframe, but likely too warm down low for snow. I'll watch these storms closely. May end the snow blog on the 17th unless another cold signal develops. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 20-21

Rain. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 23-26

Rain.

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

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Friday Entry (May 8)

Saturday May 9

A few more showers possible Saturday in the mountains mostly. Could get a little snow accumulation up about 9,000 feet in a few spots. Not much of a chance of seeing anything other that a few drops of rain in the Denver area. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

Sunday May 10

There should be another weak front move through in the evening but once again, pretty dry front with very little precip. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

Monday May 11

This storm system will actually bring a little bit of precipitation to the area. Mostly in the form of rain, although there will be a slight chance to see some snow flakes mixed in there at times. 

The storms should arrive on the Front Range by about 11am, and be on and off through the day. Mostly rain but there could initially be some snow in there especially with the dry air lowering wet bulb temperatures. There is a chance to see some light accumulation but it won't cover much of the area. 

Then in the afternoon hours, it should be mostly rain in the Denver area, ending before midnight. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 2%

Tuesday May 12

A few light showers on Tuesday as well, but Monday will likely be Denver's last chance to see any snow accumulation for the season, and that will only be a dusting in spots on the west side. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 15-16

Pretty decent storm signal in this window. Not cold enough for snow in the Denver area though.  

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 18

Just rain in Colorado. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 23-24

This signal is there again today, and does show some mountain snow showers. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

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Thursday Entry (May 7)

May 8-9

Cold front came blowing in strong on the Front Range this evening. The air behind it will get colder and colder over the next 12 hours. Temps will get into the low to mid 30's across northeast Colorado by sunrise Friday. 

So cold enough for snow, but the airmass is extremely dry. A few areas might be able to benefit from the terrain near the foothills and Palmer Divide to squeeze out some snow but I wouldn't expect to see anything on the ground.

Snow level could get down just below 7,000 feet, but if there is any accumulation it will probably be up high. 

33 degrees at DIA with just a little moisture in the air is just enough to keep a percentage up, but honestly it's probably less than 1 percent. 

Then another wave of showers on Saturday. Could see some mixed snow around the Denver area late at night, but accumulation is not really possible. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 1%

May 11-12

Another storm coming on Monday. There will be some more moisture in this one, but it will be mostly rain around the Denver area. 

Little bit of decent snow accumulation in parts of the mountains. 3-6" in spots like Rocky Mountains National Park. 

Models are showing some spotty snow accumulation around the Palmer Divide and eastern plains, but not more than a half inch. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 14

Wave of showers brings some light snow accumulation to the mountains. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 16

Weak impulse. Not much snow in the mountains with this one.  

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 18

Just rain in Colorado. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 22-23

This signal is there again today, and does show some mountain snow showers. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

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Wednesday Entry (May 6)

May 8-9

There will be a chance at a few showers on Friday morning, and it will be just cold enough to produce some snow in the Denver area, the problem though is that the moisture is very limited. 

There might just be a few snow upslope snow flurries in the foothills, not much in the way of accumulation though.  

Then another wave of snow showers on Saturday afternoon in the high country. Maybe up to an inch possible. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 2%

May 11-12

The storm on Monday and Tuesday has more moisture in it, but not the cold temps for snow down low. Probably just rain on the plains. 

Mountains will get some snow though. A few spots might pick up 3-6"

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 13-14

Adding this system in because the mountains could get a few light snow showers during this active period. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 15-16

This storm will have some cold temps but not enough to get snow in the Denver area.  

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 18

Just rain in Colorado. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 22

Not a snow signal with this system. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

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Tuesday Entry (May 5)

May 8-9

The bulk of this system will be blasting into the Great Lakes region, but Colorado will get clipped by some pretty cold air as well. The problem is the air will be very dry. The I-25 corridor may not even see a drop of rain from it. 

If there ends up being some moisture, it will likely fall as snow, but I'm not counting on it. 

Credit: KUSA
Dusting on Friday

Some parts of the mountains and foothills could see a little bit but probably just a dusting. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 2%

May 11-12

The next storm system here will have plenty of moisture in it, but will likely be too warm to create snow, especially accumulation. 

The models are showing 3-6" of snow in the high country though.

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 15-16

This storm system is looking pretty warm and will likely not have much of a snow impact. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 17-18

Not a cold signal with this storm either.  

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 19-20

GFS now has this storm missing Colorado. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

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Monday Entry (May 4)

Tuesday, May 5

A little cold air moving in but no moisture except for maybe a few light showers in southern Colorado.  

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 8-9

There is going to be a chance at some snow showers around the Denver area with this system and there might even be a little accumulation. Some parts of the suburbs could get as low as 35 degrees. 

The foothills and Palmer Divide should also get cold enough, but we're probably not looking at anything more than an inch. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 5%

May 11-12

More storms with this system. Models are not showing snow accumulation though. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 15-16

This storm is still showing in today's modeling. Not much snow impact to the Front Range though.

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 17-18

GFS still has a very active pattern with more storms in this window. No a very cold signal at the moment. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 19-20

New storm signal showing on the end of tonight's GFS. Not a cold signal for the Front Range. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

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Sunday Entry (May 3)

Monday, May 4

Storms continue across the state overnight. A wave of snow will develop in the northern mountains. 1-3 inches of snow possible with the snow line possibly dropping down below 9,000 feet for a while. 

That wave of showers will move onto the Front Range Monday morning as well, but the temperatures should be too warm for snow in the Denver area. Mostly in the upper 40's. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

Tuesday, May 5

Just a few rain showers and thunderstorms on the plains. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 8-9

A few cold fronts push through on Friday and Saturday but with limited moisture. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 10-12

Models still showing temps in the upper 30's with this storm on Monday in the Denver Metro. Could mean some snow with no accumulation, but they have shown just rain over the past 2 days. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 14-15

GFS held on to this storm solution again today. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 16-17

Active pattern here mid-month with a cold signal several runs. The old saying: don't plant tomatoes outside until week after Mothers Day. This storm signal will keep them in the house a little longer.

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

-----------


Saturday Entry (May 2)

Sunday, May 3

It's another round of thunderstorms Sunday. Could get some severe weather up along the northern Colorado state line. 

It will be snow in the high country. Could even get an inch or two in the northern mountains.

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

Monday, May 4

Still looks like the rain and snow will continue overnight Sunday into Monday, but it will be too sparse and too warm in the metro to see any snow.  

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

Tuesday, May 5

Rain and a few thunderstorms on the plains. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 8-9

Still a chance this storm reaches out with a little cold air but it's not looking too likely. Models show some mountain snow.

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 10-12

Same deal here as storm is too far of a miss and temps too warm for snow. It is borderline in a few runs, so still something to watch.

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 14-15

The GFS added this system today showing some colder temps. It's just the first showing but it will keep snow on our distant radar for a bit loner. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%


Friday Entry (May 1)

Saturday, May 2

A round of storms on Saturday. I can see some accumulating snow from these things in the higher elevations, but not much more than an inch or so.

It will be severe weather down on the plains including our first hail threat of the year. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

Credit: KUSA
Marginal severe weather threat Saturday

Sunday, May 3

Not as much storm coverage on Sunday but there will be another wave of thunderstorms. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

Monday, May 4

The rain will continue over night it looks like into Monday which means there will be a slight chance to get some mixed precip early in the morning. Temps will likely be in the upper 40's in the metro though so no accumulation possible. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

Tuesday, May 4

And one last day of showers possible Tuesday but probably just rain. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 9-10

Models are hanging on to the hope of a colder storm in this window, but it has been trending northeast of Colorado. No snow accumulation has been shown yet with this storm but it has been shown pretty close to the Denver area. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 12-13

GFS is still showing a colder storm here in a few runs. Not to the point where there is actually snow accumulation in the metro, but close. Hope is still alive. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

Thursday Entry (April 30)

Friday, May 1

Denver finally got its first 80-degree temperature on Thursday and now the storm pattern will activate just a little bit starting Friday.

RELATED: Warm Friday with a few gusty t'storms

The chances for severe weather are higher than snow but a few higher locations could get a mix with little accumulation. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

Credit: KUSA
Severe Weather risk level for Friday is at a level 1 (Marginal)

Saturday, May 2

More a vertical temperature gradient on Saturday with some continued upslope flow will bring a few snow showers to the higher elevations and another brief round of severe weather down on the plains.

No snow in the Denver area but some hail accumulation will be possible. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

Credit: KUSA
SPC severe thunderstorm outlook for Saturday showing a level 1 risk (Marginal)

Sunday, May 3

Another round of showers for parts of the mountains and foothills but Denver should stay pretty dry until late night.

Those mountain showers could be mixed but I wouldn't expect much accumulation.

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

Monday, May 4

Another wave of showers on Monday. More likely to see snow accumulation in spots up in the mountains but not much. 

Could be looking at more thunderstorms in the Denver area, although a chance for early morning showers with mean some snow will be possible. With temperature likely to be in the '40s, I would say that is not likely though. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

Tuesday, May 4

And one last day of showers possible Tuesday but probably just rain. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 8-9

This looks like a window to get a colder storm although the models are not currently enthusiastic about snow accumulation on the Front Range. 

Chance for snow in Denver: 0%

May 12-16

This is the strongest signal in the GFS right now because it is showing temperatures in the 30's a couple of times this week. The Euro's higher resolution forecast is not within range of this batch of storms yet though so we'll not give it much weight due to the GFS's performance outside of 10 days this year. 

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