A small faction of House Democrats could imperil Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s bid to become speaker. On Monday, 16 Democrats, including Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Colorado) signed a letter calling for “new leadership in our caucus.”
Democrats won control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections. Pelosi has stated her eagerness to return to the speaker position, which she attained in 2007 and relinquished in 2011 after Republicans won the chamber’s majority in the 2010 elections.
The letter praises Pelosi’s tenure and legislative achievements but says Democratic wins in the midterm election indicate voters want fresh leadership.
“In this recent election, Democrats ran and won on a message of change,” the letter says. “Our majority came on the backs of candidates who said that they would support new leadership because voters in hard-won districts, and across the country, want to see real change in Washington. We promised to change the status quo, and we intend to deliver on that promise.”
Five of the 16 signatories are members-elect.
Rep.-elect Jason Crow (D-Colorado) did not sign the letter. He has publicly stated his opposition to Pelosi’s bid to be speaker, and he reiterated that position to 9NEWS on Monday. About six or seven additional House Democrats, who are said to oppose Pelosi for speaker, also did not sign the letter.
Slim margins
So how can Pelosi win (or lose) her bid for speaker? The U.S. Constitution governs the election process of House leadership. A candidate must win the majority of votes cast.
There are 435 seats in the House. If the entire House membership casts a vote for speaker, a candidate would need at least 218 votes, or an absolute majority, to win.
Scenario: All 435 House members cast a vote for speaker
Democrats control the House with 232 seats -- four races are still undecided. If the four undecided races are won by Republicans AND all 435 House members cast a vote for speaker, Pelosi can afford only 14 Democratic defectors to still garner 218 votes.
More than 14 defectors and Pelosi loses in this scenario. Pelosi would fall short of 218 votes if the 16 Democrats who signed the letter, plus Crow and the six to seven other Democrats who are rumored to oppose Pelosi, all vote for someone else.
Scenario: some House members vote “present” instead of voting for speaker
But it’s possible for Pelosi to win with less than 218 votes. The rules state a winner receive the majority of votes cast. Members can choose to vote “present” instead of casting a vote for speaker, thus decreasing the number of votes needed to win a majority of votes cast.
Even if the faction of 23 to 24 Democrats who oppose Pelosi – the 16 letter signatories, plus Crow and the group of six or seven other House Democrats -- all vote for a different speaker, but the remaining 208 or 209 House Dems (again, assuming Republicans win the remaining undecided races) vote for Pelosi, Pelosi could emerge victorious if 22 or more House members vote “present.”
This scenario would give Pelosi 208 or 209 votes (232 Democratic members minus 23 or 24 defectors = 209 or 208 Democrats in favor of Pelosi), one or two more than 207 need to win the majority. (435 total members minus 22 “present” votes = 413. 413 / 2 = 206.5. Rounding up, 207 is majority votes needed to win).
Before Pelosi can become speaker, she must first prevail in a Democratic caucus vote. That is scheduled after the Thanksgiving recess.
