DOUGLAS COUNTY, Colo. — There is a Congressional District with a true urban-rural divide, and Republican Congresswoman Lauren Boebert has put herself right in the middle of it.
The 4th Congressional District includes Douglas County and the eastern plains.
The largest cities in the district are Highlands Ranch, Parker and Castle Rock in Douglas County, as well as Loveland and Windsor in Larimer County.
Based on Dec. 1 voter registration statistics, Congressional District four has 46% unaffiliated, 36% Republican and 17% Democratic voters.
The 3rd Congressional District on the western slope and southern Colorado has 46% unaffiliated, 30% Republican and 23% Democratic voters.
Only Republicans and unaffiliated voters can vote in the Republican primary.
“I just feel like there was a larger middle in the third where in the fourth, there's no middle. It is rock-ribbed, red, MAGA Republican,” Pollster David Flaherty said.
Flaherty, through his right-leaning Magellan Strategies, did a survey of likely Republican voters in Congressional District four prior to Boebert joining the race.
“There is no leader there,” Flaherty said. “It's basically, ‘Hey, start introducing yourself to voters.’ And it didn't matter if you were an elected official from Douglas County or from the eastern plains, it was really wide open.”
Boebert enters the race with current Logan County Commissioner, and former state lawmaker, Jerry Sonnenberg, who may appeal to rural voters who have known him for decades.
Boebert’s appeal and similar politics may pull potential voters from other candidates like State Rep. Richard Holtorf, former state lawmaker Ted Harvey and Trumper Trent Leisy.
And it could be a negative for former conservative talk radio host Deborah Flora because of Boebert’s $1.4 million cash on hand from fundraising and Boebert’s name recognition.
“Yes, she's likely to have a lead because of her name ID alone. I would also say because of her politics. It's likely to resonate with many of the Republican primary voters in the fourth,” Flaherty said.
Regarding the money, Boebert can make that $1.4 million go further since a general election in Congressional District four is almost a certain win for whichever Republican wins the primary.
“She can spend and blow every penny on the primary. She will win the general election, where that was clearly in doubt in the third,” Flaherty said.
"From a party perspective, we certainly don't think it was the best move,” Colorado GOP chair Dave Williams said on CNN.
Williams explained that seeing Boebert swap districts is not ideal.
“She's got a serious challenge on her hands trying to explain to the voters of CD4 why she felt it was necessary to leave CD3 and have a better chance at keeping her seat in Congress,” Williams said.
Why is it not ideal for the Colorado GOP, though? It could help a Republican win the 3rd Congressional District, when that may have been in doubt. And a Republican will certainly win the fourth. Perhaps it is because if a Republican wins the third, it will be a moderate Republican not quite in line with the Colorado Republican Party.
The move could help Jeff Hurd and Russ Andrews, two Republicans running in Congressional District three. It could also hurt them with other Republicans now likely to consider entering the race.
Democrat Adam Frisch may be impacted the most.
“It creates a new hurdle for Adam Frisch,” Flaherty said. “He's not running against, you know, a damaged goods candidate.”
Frisch has campaigned on being not Boebert, not necessarily anti-Republican.
“Now that’s no longer there, and it’s more about who are you going to caucus with when you go to Washington,” Flaherty said. “Now that you don’t have this toxic candidate to run against, you really need to sell yourself that you’re a conservative Democrat, a conservative rural Democrat.”
Based on data provided by Flaherty, in the 2022 Republican primary in Congressional District four, almost half of Republican primary voters were from Douglas County. Meaning the other half were rural parts of the district.
“If you're an eastern plains candidate, you really want to try to consolidate the best you can do there and then do your best you can in Douglas County, and vice versa,” Flaherty said.
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