Tuesday night's matchup against the Portland Trailblazers is not a "must-win" for the Nuggets. That would, sort of, go against the definition of "must".
Denver could, yes, lose and still make the playoffs. It's possible. In fact, they could lose to Portland, and then lose seven of their last eight games, and still get in. (That would take an all-time epic collapse from the Blazers, but hey, let's pretend).
So, it's not a "must win", but let's call it a "really, really, really incredibly important, more likely than not, probably have to win" game. Because it is.
With just nine games to go this season, the two teams are dead locked for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference at 35-38 overall, with the next closest team four games back. The Blazers currently hold the tiebreaker over the Nuggets, and probably always will, barring something truly remarkable happening the last few weeks of the season.
The reason being, Portland has already won two of its three games against Denver so far this season. Even if the Nuggets win Tuesday to even up the head-to-head series at 2-2, the next tiebreaker is division record.
The best Denver can do there is tie Portland, which would then require the Nuggets to not only win Tuesday night, but also win both of their final division matchups against the Oklahoma City Thunder, AND the Blazers to lose all FOUR of their remaining division games.
And, if that dream scenario even happens, this tiebreaker conversation probably wouldn't even matter anymore, because the Nuggets would likely be comfortably ahead in the standings at that point.
So, let's make it simple. Denver will--in all likelihood--not have the tiebreaker advantage over Portland.
That means the Nuggets HAVE to finish at least a full game ahead of the Blazers in the standings to make the playoffs for the first time since 2013.
A tie or anything less than that would give Denver another early vacation.
This all means that if the Nuggets lose to the Blazers Tuesday night, they'll have to make up a full two games in the standings on Portland in just the final eight of the season.
That's a hard enough feat by itself, and is especially the case when you look at the remaining schedule for both teams.
The Blazers' strength of schedule might be slightly tougher than Denver's (by a slim 0.03 percentage points), but what really matters is where these games take place.
For Portland--not even including its home game against Denver--six of its last eight games are on its home court, where the Blazers are 19-15 this season.
The Nuggets are the exact opposite. After traveling to Portland, they'll have six of their last eight games AWAY from the Pepsi Center. And on the road, the Nuggs are just 14-20 this year.
In short, Denver would maybe have to borrow at least some of that Colorado Rockies 2007 magic to overcome those odds and finish a game ahead of Portland.
How can this improbable scenario be avoided? It's easy. (Well, not "easy", but simple). Just beat the Blazers, and the Nuggets can hopefully maintain a one game lead for the remainder of the season, road trips and all.
Lose Tuesday night, and the Nuggets will have a lot of actual "must-win" games real soon.
