ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Blame Vance Joseph all you want, and most of Broncos Country already has. But a deeper dig reveals the Broncos have a more specific, and serious problem.
Their offense stinks.
During Joseph’s two-year term as head coach, the Broncos are 7-1 when they score at least 24 points. Only five NFL teams have a better NFL record the past two seasons when scoring at least 24 points – the threshold generally viewed as the difference between winning and losing.
A look at the best records when scoring at least 24 points since the start of the 2017 season (minimum five games):
Team ……….. W-L … Pct
Eagles …….. 18-0 … 1.000
Titans ……… 11-0 … 1.000
Rams ………. 22-2 …. .917
Bengals …… 11-1 …. .917
Saints ……… 19-2 …. .905
Chargers …. 14-2 …. .875
Broncos ……. 7-1 ….. .875
Bills ………….. 7-1 ….. .875
Patriots ……. 19-3 …. .864
The problem is the Broncos way too often fail to score 24 points. In fact, only the Arizona Cardinals have reached the 24-point threshold fewer times in the past two seasons than the Broncos.
Team …… 24-pt games
Cardinals …..… 4
Broncos …..….. 8
Bills ………..…… 8
Browns …..…… 8
Dolphins …..…. 9
Giants ……….... 9
Jets ……………... 9
Washington … 9
Rams…………… 24
Chiefs …………. 27
These numbers suggest that when Joseph is given a little bit more offense, he can coach a team to victory. The league’s 16th ranked scoring offense – or smack dab in the middle – belongs to the Minnesota Vikings with 23.3 points per game. The Broncos rank 22nd with a 21.3-point average. And that’s with a defense that ranks eighth with 24 takeaways, which usually sets up a shorter field for the offense.
Granted, Joseph as the head coach must accept responsibility for the Broncos’ offensive troubles. But Joseph’s coaching background is on the defensive side. As head coach, he needs help from his coaching assistants and front office for the offense to become playoff caliber.
The Broncos’ success when scoring 24 points – and failure to score 24 points – fits with how the team allocates its assets. The Broncos have the 32nd ranked offensive payroll with $53.53 million. Or dead last. Their defensive payroll of $102.46 million ranks 5th.
In the final quarter of the season, the Broncos’ offense has been trying to operate with virtually no experience prior to this year at receiver, tight end and running back, and the offensive line has lost three of its top seven players to season-ending injuries.
Case Keenum, the quarterback, has fallen short of expectations but in fairness, he isn’t exactly working with Hall of Fame complements.
After this season ends Sunday evening with their game against the Los Angeles Chargers, the Broncos will make significant changes and all focus is on whether the head coach position will be among them. But the team’s most pressing problem has been an offense that doesn’t score enough to win.
When the Broncos won Super Bowl 50 to cap their 2015 season, the defense received the bulk of the credit. In each of the three years since, the Broncos have failed to qualify for the postseason and the offense deserves most of the blame.
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