DENVER — To understand why NFL talent evaluators sometimes misread the projections of otherwise highly regarded draft prospects, take the current scouting reports of quarterbacks J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix.
McCarthy is entering the NFL Draft at 21 years old and with two years of starting experience at Michigan. He won a ton in those two years, including in the NCAA championship game this past season, but his passing numbers were comparatively pedestrian, never throwing for 3,000 yards or for more than 22 touchdowns in a single season.
Nix is turning pro at 24 and brings with him five full seasons as a starting quarterback for two major programs.
“Experience is one of the most valuable traits,’’ Nix said during his NFL Combine news conference on March 1. “Repetition is the mother of all skills, the more you can do something the better you get. I think playing this game playing the sport has allowed me to get better each game, I was able to prove that as the years went on. Learning new things five systems in five years is a lot to learn, but it’s a lot of fun. Wouldn’t trade it for the world, it’s one of the best things that makes me, me.’’
He is coming off a season in which he surpassed 4,500 passing yards while registering a stunning 45 touchdowns against just three interceptions for the Oregon Ducks.
But when Nix was 21 he was having a “miserable” experience playing for new Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin, was benched in the fourth quarter of one game, and missed the final three games because of an ankle injury that required surgery.
Had Nix entered the NFL Draft and not the transfer portal following his junior season at Auburn, he most likely would not have been considered a first-round candidate.
“I think it just put everything together,’’ Nix said about his move to Oregon. “Provided me with some freedoms and some chances. Some opportunities later in my career that I didn’t have earlier. We were able to be very versatile, get the ball everywhere, play under center, shotgun, play action, RPOs do it all at a high level.”
What the talent evaluators for the quarterback-needy Denver Broncos must decide is who will be the better quarterback in, say, the 2026 season: McCarthy, who in his third NFL season will be 24 – Nix’s age now - or Nix, who will then be 26? Luckily for the Broncos, their head coach Sean Payton is confident he will figure out the answer.
“I think one thing that's hard to measure is their ability to multitask, process and make decisions,’’ Payton said. “You can visit with someone and they can be intelligent, but how quickly can they deliver the information? How quickly can they get through the progression?
“Sometimes it's not as difficult as we make it out to be and then sometimes it's very difficult. I think we'll be really good at this, and I think to some degree, we're glad that a lot of people aren't.”
A similar evaluation challenge is presented with two other quarterbacks with first-round possibilities: Drake Maye, who is 21, and Michael Penix Jr., who had two tremendous seasons following his transfer to Washington but is about to turn 24.
After breaking down McCarthy on Wednesday, 9NEWS takes a look Thursday at Nix.
The first thought is Nix’s skill set is near his ceiling, which is why some NFL draft evaluators have him rated as a second-round prospect. He can grow in the areas of adjusting to an NFL playbook, the increased speed of the game and reading the keys of more disguised defenses and processing it all in a tick or twos time.
“The physical game will be the same, maybe a step or two faster,’’ Nix said. “Most difficult thing will be to process at the speed it’s happening.’’
McCarthy, meanwhile, should in theory have more room to grow as a quarterback in all facets of his game. To wit: Men are generally superior physically and mentally at 24 than they are at 21.
Not that age is necessarily a bad thing. Nix may be the most NFL ready of all the quarterback prospects in this draft.
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